Fact-Checking Tinubu’s Democracy Day Speech
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Democracy Day address was broadcasted today, June 12. This democracy day marks Nigeria’s 27th year of civilian rule. The address touched on the Tinubu administration’s goals, results, challenges and efforts to address issues facing the country.
NV-A extracted some claims and figures from the address to verify them.
VERIFICATION
CLAIM 1: Terror-related Deaths Are Down By 81% Since 2015
Verification
The year 2015 represents the peak of Boko Haram’s reign of terror, when the group was the deadliest terrorist organisation in the world. According to the Global Terrorism Index, GTI, published by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the 2015 report recorded approximately 7,512 terrorism-related deaths in Nigeria for 2014, this was a 300% increase from the prior year.
The 2016 GTI report confirmed that 2015 is the second deadliest year on record globally for terrorism and that Nigeria’s toll, while declining from the 2014 peak, was still catastrophically high. Measuring a decline from this extreme point produces the largest possible percentage reduction.
According to the 2026 GTI report, released in March 2026, Nigeria recorded the largest absolute increase in terrorism deaths of any country in the world in 2025, 237 additional fatalities above the prior year.
Terror attacks themselves surged from 120 incidents in 2024 to 171 in 2025, a 43% increase. Nigeria has now moved from 8th place on the index in 2022 to 4th place in 2025, meaning, by independent measurement, Nigerians have more terrorist incidents than when Tinubu took office.
Verdict
Tinubu’s claim is MISLEADING. While there was a genuine long-term reduction in Nigeria’s catastrophic 2015 peak, this decline was largely achieved before Tinubu took office. Since 2023, terror deaths have risen consecutively for three years.
CLAIM 2: 124,000 Surrendered Since 2023 Via Operation Safe Corridor
Verification
Operation Safe Corridor, OPSC, is Nigeria’s state-run deradicalisation, rehabilitation, and reintegration program for repentant Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) fighters.
It was established in September 2015 under President Muhammadu Buhari as a presidential directive-backed custodial program, with the aim of deradicalising, rehabilitating, and reintegrating repentant ex-combatants into society. The focus of the program are: fighters who have surrendered during military operations, those who were conscripted against their will, and those disillusioned with insurgent leadership.
President Tinubu’s speech states that 124,000 fighters and dependents have surrendered since 2023. However, the Operation Safe Corridor did not begin in 2023. It was set up by President Buhari in September 2015 and formally launched in 2016. The program has been operating continuously for a decade, across two administrations.
In February 2025, the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, stated at an OPSC Stakeholders Meeting in Abuja that over 120,000 terrorists and their family members had surrendered since the inception of Operation Safe Corridor in 2016. This is the same figure rounded up to 124,000 by the time of the Democracy Day speech that Tinubu presented as a 2023 achievement. The CDS’s own words confirm it is a ten-year cumulative figure, not a three-year one.
Verdict
The claim made by Tinubu is MISLEADING. The program began in 2015 under President Buhari, not in 2023, and the figure cited is the program’s ten-year cumulative total was 120,000 which included children and family members.
CLAIM 3: 50,000 Police Officers Recruited
Verification
The Police Service Commission, in collaboration with the Nigerian Police Force, NPF, announced the commencement of recruitment of 50,000 police constables into the Nigeria Police Force, as directed by President Tinubu. The recruitment portal opened on December 15, 2025. This means the exercise began just six months ago.
The PSC received a total of 616,873 applications before the recruitment portal closed on February 8, 2026, after which a two-week extension was granted and over 400,000 applications were received. The recruiting exercise included physical and credential screening, and written aptitude examination. As of today, June 12, 2026, not a single one of the 50,000 targeted constables has completed training, been sworn in, or begun active service. They exist, at this point, as candidates, not officers.
Verdict
Tinubu’s claim about the recruitment is MISLEADING. The recruitment of 50,000 police constables is a real and ongoing government initiative, but the exercise is still in its medical screening and final documentation phase. No officer from this exercise has been trained, sworn in, or deployed to any duty post.
CONCLUSION
The claim that: there’s an 81% decline in terror-related deaths since 2015 as evidence for his administration’s security strategy; that 124,000 surrendered since 2023 via Operation Safe Corridor; and that 50,000 police officers have been recruited are all MISLEADING.
